who really won the olympics

I've been meaning to post this for a while. I usually do this after every Olympics. Usually a country is declared the winner. Either who wins the most golds (China) or the most medals (the US). But this is really an unfair comparison. More people means more likelihood of winning. So I take the total medals won and divide by the population in millions to get a rough gauge of how efficient a country is at creating world class athletes. I've only included those countries that win at least 7 medals. Totally arbitrary. And the numbers are surprising. Here they are (you can click on the picture to get a better view):


What's unusual is that 'island' nations do very well. I wonder if it has something to do with those nations being more outdoorsy and thus athletic? The US is below average. Although if you had the information you could redo this for medals gained by where an athlete trains. In that case most the US would move up some. But it's certainly not a great showing. Surprisingly the worst of all is China. Average US is still 5 times more likely to create a medal. It's notably inefficient. Even Ethiopia (not in this chart) scores better than China. I should point out that on this chart the worst is China. The absolute worst is India. Dead last among all nations. 3 medals for 1.2 billion people. They need to get cricket added pronto.

"if i were an excitable guy this would upset me to no end"

Nothing makes you feel quite as old, nostalgic, and sad as when icons from your childhood die. Especially people who you grew up with who were at the height of their youth and talent. This week Bruce Allen (lower right) from The Suburbs died at the age of 54. Not a name recognizable to most people. Note "The Suburbs" is capitalized. It was a band. They never made it big. Not by a long shot. Not for want of trying or talent. But there is a small subsection of people who grew up in Minnesota during the 80s that still listen to their music today.

They were for most of their fans the first reason to listen to music at all. That was my story. Never understanding the appeal of music on the radio, I passed off music as something that wasn't for me. Until a friend played Kraftwerk, Gary Numan, and The Suburbs. While the first two were unaccessible to me, The Suburbs were a local band. And they played all ages shows. They were a unusual blend of punk and pop and strange imagery and lyrics (much like The Pixies before The Pixies) and utterly mind blowing live concerts. And they had a logo (designed by Bruce Allen).

I'll never forget my first show. It was at a dinner theatre near the old Twins stadium. The name escapes me. It was one of these fancy places that catered to dying old stars and clientele who got 'dressed up' for their once a year "big" evening. Sequined and sparkly dresses de riguer for the women and suits, dusty from years of neglect, for men. This is where it all went terribly wrong. Back then a blend of punk and pop was deadly left of center. The fan base was decidedly not mainstream.

As about 6 high school friends and I sat down in our front row, red fake leather booth with a nice tableclothed table from which to sip cokes, the show started. There was a dance floor gap between the stage and seating. Designed primarily for people to shake their booty to Lawrence Welk. This space was immediately appropriated by pretty much everyone on the first level and become a mosh pit. I'm not sure they were called that back then and I had never see one before.

I then turned around to see how many people were left seated behind us only to notice that in the upper levels people were furiously tying coats together. They then began rapelling down the overhang so they too could jump in the pit. As I turned back I realized there were two people dancing on our table. And in fact every other table in the theatre. This lasted for about 1 minute because every table promptly cracked off it's support from the weight. Remarkably the theatres hired hands hauled away the tables quickly and without a protest. I was sure the cops would be filing through the theatre at any second.

The first song, I forget which, ended and at that point all but 2 of my friends just got up and left. Not even saying a word. They just left. It was too much for them. The rest of the show was more reserved from the crowd but the band took up the job of being crazy. Particularly one of the two lead singers who at every show seemed to be in a trance/stoned state. The one stunt I recall is him scaling 4 huge speakers stacked on top of one another. So high he could touch the ceiling of the stage as he sang; the speakers wavering back and forth in a manner that seemed to defy physics. After the show ended 3 people were passed out on the floor, overdosed. Ambulances awaited them outside as we all filed out.

I was clearly not in suburban Minnesota any more. This was an entirely new experience. Something I didn't know existed in the world. My universe expanded a little. Which was a hopeful feeling if anyone has lived in the suburbs or watched Dazed & Confused. And for that they'll always have a place in my heart. RIP Bruce.

liar

“I know the whole Twitter/Facebook social-networking revolution is supposed to transform the way we communicate with each other. But for the most part it looks to me like just another way to avoid human interaction while tossing out meaningless tidbits of minutiae.

“I admit to coming at this from a certain bias. Maybe it’s age, or the complete lack of desire to be held prisoner by another electronic device — or app or site or whatever — but I have absolutely no interest in knowing where people are and what they’re doing at all times. You’re in the supermarket and can’t believe the price of asparagus — fine. Leave me out of it. I have no interest in being given 140-character opinions or observations or updates — even from people I know and like.” -- ESPN writer Tim Keown

This is simply not true. People keep saying this about Twitter but it's not true. People do want to know this stuff. I sit on the subway for 40 minutes a day and this is the kind of thing people talk about all the time. Today was all about what people had for Thanksgiving dinner and how it was and "oh what about this weather" and "can you believe the long weekend is over" stuff.

Person 1: "$5.99 for a bunch of asparagus. Are they kidding me?"

Person 2: "Highway robbery"

Person 1: "Who do they think they are?"

Person 2: "I think Goldman Sachs is behind it. Speculation. Running the price of asparagus up."

This is all people talk about ever. You never hear people going on about Chavez and the long term effects he will have on Venezuela or what the inflationary implications are for the Fed printing so much money. We talk about the price of asparagus. Sure we bring up Chavez for a few sentences and then we're right back to asparagus prices.

I wish people would stop saying they don't care what their friends have for breakfast. We deeply deeply care. Get over your elitist self. Our daily interactions with people are borne from this kind of minutiae.

power of 1/10

Kind of the inverse of The Eames video Power of 10

Cell Size and Scale

friends in high places

Probably the most egregious example that Obama's picks for dealing with this financial crisis are all in cahoots with Wall Street,

New York Fed’s Secret Choice to Pay for Swaps Hits Taxpayers

To summarize: Before AIG went kaput, the CFO for the financial products division was trying to get banks that had bought credit default swaps from AIG to accept 40 cents on the dollar. Rephrased, Banks like Goldman Sachs bought insurance policies from AIG that were being called. Since AIG could not possibly pay for all of these policies it was seeing if they could negotiate smaller payouts. Goldman already realized AIG couldn't pay and had written down these assets. After troubles at AIG became apparent, Geithner and the Fed took over negotiations. How well did they negotiate?

“After less than a week of private negotiations with the banks, the New York Fed instructed AIG to pay them par, or 100 cents on the dollar.”

Unbelievable! To sum up the reality in one person's words,

“There’s no way they should have paid at par,” she says. “AIG was basically bankrupt.”

Even more galling is that people in the Fed, like the chairman of the NY Fed, took advantage of this to purchased Goldman Sach stock. He netted himself about $5.4m in profits.

You can't make this stuff up.

haloween

Chris Ware's New Yorker cover is priceless. Look carefully.

escape

You owe it to yourself to read the account of NY Times journalist David Rohde's capture by the Taliban and eventual escape. It reads like a work of fiction. Undoubtedly this will be turned into a movie.

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
Epilogue
Interactive Features

crunch

Fascinating crash test video showing a 1959 vintage car crashing into a 2009 vintage car. It should be obvious who wins.

burger bliss

I finally got around to trying one of the Pat La Frieda burger patties that is being sold through FreshDirect in NY (see orginal article here). I have one thing to say. Oh my God. This is clearly the way to go when making burgers. A couple of points,

• NY generally suffers from poor produce that I'm guessing is related to the increased length of time to get food into the city and distributed to an appropriate storage area. I've seen food sit outside on the sidewalk on a hot day for ages in NY. The Frieda burgers are really well packaged and looked remarkably fresh when they were delivered. They were just beautiful looking.
• There are 3 blends and I chose the beef short rib blend that is highly regarded and sells for a premium. The fat:meat ratio must be close to 30:70. Cooking a patty releases a lot of juices and when I bit into my first, medium rare, patty it literally dripped like a wet sponge
• I prepared it much like a steak; medium rare on a Lodge griddle with lots of salt seasoning. And I served it plain except for a slice of American cheese. It really doesn't require any ketchup, mustard, onions, etc.
• It tastes like eating chopped steak as the old commercial goes. Really good succulent juicy beefy steak. The taste is concentrated and intense like a well aged steak. I would say that it tasted better than almost all the other hamburger joints I've frequented.

solar paranoia

Sorry but this article in the NY Times detailing how China is 'racing ahead' of the US in solar is way off base. The title doesn't even match up against what the author has written.

"Chinese companies have already played a leading role in pushing down the price of solar panels by almost half over the last year"

Actually the drop had a lot more to do with the oversupply of a key input, high purity polysilicon, and the drop in demand following the credit crisis. Asian solar companies cost structures continue to drop at the rate they always have.

Shi Zhengrong [...] said in an interview here that Suntech is selling solar panels on the American market for less than the cost of the materials, assembly and shipping.

Sounds like a great business. I guess you make up the difference on volume. Why aren't we Americans in this great business?

“I don’t see Europe or the United States becoming major producers of solar products — they’ll be consumers,” said Thomas M. Zarrella, the chief executive of GT Solar International.

Actually Europe and the US are already large producers of solar products. They just don't buy a lot of GT Solar's equipment. They have more differentiated and innovative products than the commodity products that roll off of GT Solar's equipment.

Suntech, based here in Wuxi, is on track this year to pass Q-Cells of Germany, to become the world’s second-largest supplier of photovoltaic cells, which would put it behind only First Solar in Tempe, Ariz.

So wait. The largest solar company is a US company? And it's growing faster than all the others? And it has a differentiated product with insanely huge margins on par with software companies? Really we should give that up for this great negative margin polysilicon module business.

Alright enough of this. The US has 2 large solar players: First Solar and SunPower. Both make differentiated products that earn larger margins than the other players. There are a number of smaller companies pushing newer technologies. You've got GT Solar which is the arms dealer for those fighting the commodity module war in China. Europe also has some high end solar manufacturers. The US and Europe are aso the only places where companies make high purity polysilicon; the one component of solar modules that actually makes real money. The Chinese have been trying for years will little success.

The Chinese manufacturers are just that - manufacturers. They use commodity equipment to make commodity products that have low margins. They are good at that type of business. They have cheap labor. They should be in that business. This is not a business the US should be in just like we should not be in the business of bending metal into cars. Low priced labor areas are a far better place to do this. The US, as always, is a better place to do innovative, high margin work which is what it is doing. In the car analogy the US should, as it does, develop the electrical systems, car designs, crash technology, etc. That's where the money is.

nuclear power plant

Last week I had a nice tour of a nuclear power plant in the Northeast US. There was a bit of a security ruckus over the photos I took but I was able to get away with keeping them after a little fast talking. I'll keep the name of the plant off this post as a result. There was, as you can imagine, a huge amount of security at the plant. I was a little surprised I got the camera in and was able to keep the photos. It was a full day tour compared to the quarter or half day tours at other non-nuclear plant tours I've been to. I think this is because nuclear power plants have much more aggressive community outreach programs given the overall fear some people have of these types of plants.

What's interesting about nukes is that they almost always reside on large wildlife sanctuaries. Ironically they are the cleanest power plants, and in general, the cleanest factory of any sort and make good neighbors for wildlife preserves. Not many people want to live near the power plant so they are given a big berth. No one builds anything within a sizable radius around them.

The most distinctive site at a nuke plant is of course the tower below. It's iconic. It's the largest part of the plant and so its the part everyone sees. It's funny then that all this tower does is cool water. There's nothing really inside it. It's a large sheath covering a skeleton infrastructure that allows hot non-radiated water from the generating turbines to cool off so it can be pumped back in again. But it's an awfully impressive structure. It's 500 feet high and it has both a ominous feel to it as well as a modern art sculpture feel to it.

You can see from at the bottom the large gap which allows air to be sucked in purely by a venturi effect. And if you look very closely you can see water streaming down at the bottom. To the tune of 14,000 gallons per minute. That's an impressive amount of water but it's nothing compared to the other nuclear units. You see the cooling tower is an optional component to a nuke plant. The other units use a regular heat exchanger but require a lot more water. More on that later.

Here are two reactor cores. The two domes. Most of the real core however is underground. Also housed here but not shown are the generating units which function much like any other fossil fuel plant. In gas, coal, nuke plants steam is generated from heat and used to turn a turbine. The only difference is how the steam is created. Where a core is loaded it generally runs 18 months before the nuclear material is exhausted and a refueling operation is performed.

On these units the cooling is done via a standard heat exchanger. You lose the tower but the inefficiency of this technique and the fact that the water comes from a river and can't be heated up too much, means you need to use much more water. For these two units 1.1 million gallons per min is needed per unit. Wow! That water pipe below is much bigger than it looks. It was maybe 6-8 feet across. And there were a lot of them. Maybe 20? Pretty impressive engineering as the impact on wildlife from this water intake is heavily regulated as well.

I'll make no bones that I like nuclear energy a lot. It's carbon free and has almost no waste output except those nasty little radioactive pellets. In general these are stored on site because we don't have a national policy on what to do with them. I actually think this is good. This plant has the capacity to store 60 more years of waste and that can be expanded. Storing this stuff in some place like Yucca Mountain means we would forget about it. I think the best storage policy is to keep it on site so we can actually monitor and maintain the storage systems. I've heard but not verified that the total cumulative world wide nuke waste would fit into a football field about 3 meters high. That's much more manageable than the immensely large ash output of coal plants which are not going away any time soon based on projected rates of solar and wind installations.

The power is also dispatchable meaning you can generate it when you need it unlike solar and wind. So all 3 make a nice marriage. In general a portfolio of non-carbon and non-SOx/NOx producing generation technologies is best. And you can build a lot of gigawattage of power with these babies. Each unit generally kicks out 1-1.5 gigawatts each.

The downsides are many however. I've mentioned the 'what do we do with the pellets' problem. The other is related and that is for political reasons we don't process the pellets to extract more energy. I've heard we extract something like 3% of the extractable energy. After a first run, France processes the pellets and resuses them. They extract much more energy out which dramatically reduces your storage issue. The political issue is you get closer and closer to producing weapons grade inputs. What France does (which makes about 80% of its electricity from nukes) to overcome this I don't know.

The second problem is cost. These plants are expensive. There is a wave of research being done right now around nukes. To date the new plant designs haven't been built in scale so plant costs should come down as they are built and become more turnkey.

The third problem is it takes 15 years to build one. Most of that is related to regulatory legwork. That clearly could be streamlined like France did. But I don't expect that to change very quickly.

I like nukes but the fact is we will not be building many of these for at least the next two decades. At that point the effects of carbon in the atmosphere may force the issue.

portland wind farm

I've been dying to see a wind farm for a while now and I was lucky enough to get offered a chance recently through one of our sell-side brokers. The wind farm was near Portland. East of the city near Hood River. At that point the lush green pine tree-infested land of the coast transitions to a much more arid desert-like wasteland. This climate change makes the area a good wind producer. As far as the eye could see there were windmills. I'd conservatively guess something like 500 windmills were in the area. Most were of this make. About a 1.6 MW wind turbine. They are impressive beasts to watch. But there are even bigger ones in Europe up to 6-7 MWs.

Most of the land is farm land. And even with the turbines up, the farmers continue to till that land right up to the base of the structures. It's a nice additional revenue generator for the farmers. The tower structure is hollow. The only way to service the turbine and blades at the top is to climb up. Those guys must be in shape. The turbines are serviced twice a year. The blades surprisingly (at least to me) are made mainly from balsa wood with a fiber composite used as a sheath. I'm not sure what I thought they were made of but it wasn't wood. And the axis the blades turn on is slightly angled up to the sky so that when the wind is blowing hard the blades don't clip the tower at the bottom of their arc.

What you don't see below ground is quite a large base of rebar and concrete to support the tower. It's in the shape of a flying saucer. Most of this is covered with dirt. The box you see is the transformer which conditions the electricity before it hits the grid. The capital cost of the generators and installation is quite significant compared to most sources of electricity. In fact in this area entire roads need to be built first to facilitate transport of the turbines and equipment into the area, electrical cable needed to be laid down, and a support infrastructure was built to maintain the turbines.

The beauty of wind power is of course minimal operating costs which make up for the high capital costs. Wind is free.

The three downsides are however significant and need to be managed.

1. Wind blows at night when power demand is low. In most wind turbine installations, at certain times, electrical power prices can actually be negative. You read that right. Because of production tax credits, wind farm owners are actually willing to pay you to take the electricity off their hands when there is excess production. They make up for the loss with the production tax credit. This is clearly not the most profitable outcome for any generator including the wind generators.
2. The second issue is that wind generally doesn't blow where the power demand is. See any large manufacturing plants in these pictures? This electricity needs to be hauled out via transmission lines that are slowly becoming congested as more turbines go up. Transmission line approval and siting and building is a frustratingly slow process. Perhaps over time some specific types of manufacturing plants will build in these areas to take advantage of these negative power prices. But it needs to be a certain type of power demand. Data centers, which need constant reliable power are not it. Because...
3. The other problem is that the wind blows when the wind blows. When the wind stops, that drop in generation can be difficult to manage by the managing authority. In this case the Bonneville Power Authority is in charge. I met with their executives and they said the wind opportunities in this are were quickly overrunning their ability to manage the system reliability. They showed me one incredible chart where all the turbines were producing 100% output. In one hour it sunk to 0% output. In another hour it was back up to 100% output. To put that into perspective that is the equivalent to a large nuclear plant shutting down in 1 hour. That's a lot of electricity that needs to be replaced. Typically only fast 'peaking' gas plants can ramp up in that time frame. But who on earth would build peaking plants in an area where power prices can go negative? There are ways to manage this but they are not perfect. So add the cost of those gas plants to the real cost of building wind power systems.

browsers

One of my favorite tech bloggers declares, "Google Chrome is the New Firefox, and Firefox the new IE".

He then goes on to state,

It's funny. Browsers seem to be like Internet companies. Every few years a new, small, faster one comes along to kill off some (or all) of the previous generation. I guess this is just the latest in that constant evolution.

I'm in the same boat. I transitioned from IE to Firefox and now exclusively use Chrome. For me at least what's going on is that the race for features is overlooking the most important feature; stablity and speed. The bells and whistles that IE and Firefox have are nice but I just don't use them enough for them to compensate for the overhead. My greatest concern here is that Google will kow tow to the voices of criticism regarding their browser that it is missing 'must have' features. To me speed and stability are the only 'must have' features.

p90x - month 3

Well I finally completed the last phase of P90x on Sunday. Boy it feels good to finish. It is by far the most intense workout I've ever done. The last month I also went completely hardcore on my food intake. Not quantity; just what was going in. I probably shed about 5 pounds of fat. And the results speak for themselves. I'm probably in the best shape I've been in since I was about 30. I'm much stronger and flexible. And my cardio ability is way up.

• Building muscle just isn't what it used to be. I think if i did this in my 30s I would have a lot more muscle bulk. As it stands I'm a lot more sinewy. Having said that I'm still increasing the weight on the strength routines.
• I am more flexible now than I have ever been. Even as a teenager. Each week I could stretch a little more.
• Yoga, particuarly P90X's version, continues to be my favorite workout and one that I'll do in my 80s if I'm around. It is just grueling. There's one particular move that stands out. You are in a lunge and you link hands by reaching one arm behind your back and one between you legs. At this point sweat drips off my body at the rate of 3-4 drops per second. Never fails. I call the move the 'sponge squeeze'.
• The one area I was hoping to improve that didn't was my lower back issues. I get chronic lower back pain. It shows up every 3 months of so. Typically when I work out I get more back issues not less. This was true during P90X. They weren't debilitating issues (at least they weren't until the very last day) but they were more prevalent. I'm hopeful if I keep up the workouts this will eventually not be true but I'm not sure if that will pan out or not.
• I can't say I have 6 pack abs. I'm painfully close. With the right lighting you might be fooled. But there is still a small layer of fat in the very center portion where these muscles are. Everywhere else is fat free. Arrgghhhh!
• I never realized you have muscles around your ribs but then, of course, what are you eating when you eat ribs? The Ab Ripper and Core Synergistics have really built up these muscles impressively.
• Looking at some of the worksheets it's amazing how much more fit I am in a few areas. The one that sticks out is pullups. I could do maybe 6 full pullups at the beginning before I needed to switch to using a chair for help. Now I knock out about 8 sets of 8 or 9. My goal is to at some point get to 8 sets of 15. Pushups for me would die around 30 reps before I had to go to the knees. Now I can do about 150-200 over the course of 8 sets depending on the type of pushup.
• It's become difficult for me to really cheat with my diet. A lot of bad food appeals less to me because I can't help think what it'll do to my workout that night. Booze is completely out. I never really liked alcohol but a casual drink is about as unappealing as anything to me now. Having said that I have a required boozing session this coming Friday.

So now the question is what next? I'm taking the next week off. I'm forgetting the diet and the workout for 7 full days. And then I think I'm going to start it up again and run it through another 90 days. In fact I'll probably just keep doing if forever.

kindle

My wife scored a Kindle (second gen) for her birthday few months back from her boss. My wife doesn't read that much, so I've been able to use it over the last few months and have become really addicted to the thing.

• I'm a book whore. I covet books. I have 3 large shelves packed with books. I thought it would be really difficult to buy an electronic book. Actually the first one was. I picked a marginal book and author for my first download. The second one was a book I already own. That kind of got me over the hump. I'm not sure I'll ever buy another physical book. It's hard to explain my change of heart. If I could cost effectively trade my physical books for Kindle books I would.
• The small Kindle 2 is a nice size. The screen seems small at first but the screen size is really irrelevant. It's the font size that matters and that's adjustable. This will also come in handy as my eyes fade with age.
• I can't say I'm overly impressed with the e-ink technology. It works and it's easier on the eyes than an LCD screen, but it's a dull gray versus a nice white and the transition from page to page is a tad jarring.
• It's so much easier to read the Kindle than a book. The elimination of page turning and spine bending and bookmarks falling out and loosing my spot are really nice. I don't squirm around trying to find a good position to read the Kindle like I do with a book. Many reviewers disagree with me on this one.
• I read faster on the Kindle. I like large fonts. My eyes do less scanning with large fonts. That means quicker reading.
• The Kindle for iPhone app has a nice 'whispersync' feature that updates how far you've read. I read the Kindle in bed and the iPhone on the subway and it's always where I left off after syncing. Nice.
• I read more now that I use a Kindle. I'm not sure why.
• Downloading books takes seconds. It's very quick.
• Not all books are formatted that well. I've run across pages with odd font irregularities and spacing and page breaks where they shouldn't be. There's even typos. Hopefully this gets cleared up.
• Some books are free. Arthur Conan Doyle books are totally free downloads.
• One user interface problem is where chapters end. I like to end on a chapter but you have no visual clue to tell you have far you are from the end of a chapter. There's a progress bar for the full book but they need a second one for chapters.
• The battery life is great.
• The next and previous page buttons are loud. They need to mute the clicking a bit.
• The hardware is very light and very thin. Thinner than my iPhone.
• The keyboard is awful but it's irrelevant since you rarely use it. The joystick is awful and this is relevant as it is used to invoke the auto dictionary feature. It's a bit cumbersome.
• The auto dictionary feature is awesome. Awesome!
• For the most part the books I've read are significantly cheaper than real book versions. The availability is still somewhat lacking though.
• I don't have a lot of books yet but I don't see any foldering system for archived books. I imagine after 5 years when I have tons of books this will be addressed.
• I'm aware that the Kindle has tons of hidden features. They are not obviously detected. I need to sit down with the manual one of these days.

mmmmm burgers

Pat La Frieda to sell burger patties to public. Nice. I think this only applies to NY but perhaps they'll have other distributors. Pat La Frieda basically does one thing in NY; makes custom blended burger patties for restaurants. I can't think of a single top rated burger joint in the city that doesn't use them. Until today the only way to get any of their blends was to go to the restaurants that use them. La Frieda's general approach with burger patties is to use a much higher fat to meat ratio and to use a blend of meat cuts rather than say just chuck. They also tend to use prime beef.

I'm sure it'll be pricey I've been meaning to experiment with making burgers recently and I went so far as to secure a butcher who would make my own customer blends (Lobels). This will make it a little easier.

I think the NY philosophy on burgers is radically different from most others. There are a few key elements.

• Charbroiling is looked down upon. High heat, flat top griddle cooking is preferred.
• There is a huge amount of attention paid to the bun. Both the type and the size. Most would say, and I agree, a potato hamburger bun works best. Burger to bun ratios are a hot topic
• Simplicity in toppings. Adding bacon, weird cheeses and sometimes even ketchup and mustard are frowned upon. A slice of cheese is okay but much more takes away from the burger

entropy machines

It's incredible the amount of damage two toddlers can do with only a 5 minute nap of their caretakers to work with. I'm not just referring to toys strewn across the floor but actual furniture that has been moved from one room to the other.

contador

So did that seal Contador as the true team leader of Astana? Probably. He has now beaten Armstrong in the individual time trial and the first major mountain stage. That's probably the best thing that could have happened to the team. I think at this point Contador is the better cyclist. We'll see how Armstrong reacts now if he's forced into a supporting role down the road.

tdf 2009

In the past I've blogged quite a bit about the Tour de France as it was being raced. I neither have the time or energy to do that right now. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't be watching it. The first few days have been the most exciting in a couple of years.

The big news of course is that Lance Armstrong is back in this year's race. And today came to within 1/10 of a second of the maillot jaune as his team, Astana, put in a good showing in the team time trial.

I'm not about to start blogging now but I do want to make one comment. I don't think Armstrong has a chance in hell of winning. I think it'll taking something Herculean on his part to pull it off. Here's why.

Most obviously he is old. He's almost 38. As good as he is he's probably past his prime of nailing mountain climbs to gain 30 seconds here and there on a hungrier and younger field.

More importantly his team is a disaster. You wouldn't guess that by looking at the roster. Let's take a look who is on it: Lance Armstrong, Alberto Contador, Andreas Kloden, and Levi Leipheimer; not to mention Armstrong's old director, Johan Bruyneel. So what's the problem? Those are 4 outstanding riders to have on a team. That is exactly the problem. They are too good. They are all contenders and have never played a domestique role within a team. Contador won the 2007 TdF for crying out loud.

Imagine any one of these four guys is in the best position to win the TdF but is in trouble. Would the other 3 really come back and help a struggling team member or would they jump at the chance to steal the opportunity. Kloden f**ked Ullrich many times by not helping and instead going for glory. Contador in many ways should be considered the team leader. Leipheimer's days are numbered and Armstrong's even more so.

Let's look at the current standings:
Cancellara leader
Armstrong +0'00"
Contador +0'19"
Kloden +0'23"
Leipheimer +0'31"

Uh oh!

Unless a clear team leader emerges before the mountains or one or two days into the first mountain trials you are going see some serious shit flying. Which could be entertaining in its own right.

p90x - month 2

Phase 2 is done. I'm still on schedule missing only two optional stretch workouts. The biggest problem I've found with a 6/7 day a week workout routine is that if you get sick, you're screwed. If friends visit, you're screwed. I got sick and had friends visit. My solution was to double up the workout which was not fun.

In general things are getting easier. Yoga is still problematic but my flexibility has improved dramatically. Plyo still gives me sore legs the next day but I feel like I'm actually keeping up with the instructor now. Core Synergistics still completely wipes me out though. Overall the workouts are still hard but I feel like I'm getting a solid workout rather than one that I limp through.

A few other points:

• I have had some of the worst cramps in my life on this program. Specifically a small leg muscle in the inner thigh that seems to traverse from hip to inside the knee. I've had two cramps in this region. It is excruciating. Mainly because I simply don't know how to stretch it. I just have to sit there and bear it. A friend mentioned he gets them so bad that he actually has bruised legs the next morning. It's horrible and I live in nightly fear of these things.
• Apart from that fear I sleep more soundly than I have ever done in my life. It is nearly impossible for me to get up in the morning and I almost never move at night. I always wake up with deep creases in my face.
• Last week for the first time people have started to comment on if I was working out. One poor guy's wife told him to go and ask me what I was doing. He is now the proud owner of a P90X DVD set. It was only in the last week that I noticed a significant difference as well. My performance also started to improve in the weight sections around this time to where I felt I wasn't languishing anymore. I can knock out about 20 reps of push ups on an 8 set workout and almost 8 reps of pull ups on an 8 set workout. Oddly though my Day 60 pictures and Day 30 pictures don't look that different. I can't quite figure that out.
• I'm still not building much muscle bulk. It still continues to be increasing tone that I'm getting. Striations in the shoulder muscles are coming out. Tricep definition is improving. I do have man boobs now of the protein type but they're not huge. Etc.
• In what is a complete 'never happened' moment for me before my abs are becoming increasingly toned and actually visible. Not 6 pack yet. Not even 2 pack. But you can see vague outlines of them.
• The 'most improved' award goes to the glutes. I have a typical white-guy flat butt. Through plyo and core synergistics and kenpo things are actually becoming, dare I say it, perky. I would say most of the hard work in the routines is the lunge based exercises. And there are a lot of them. It'd be hard not to improve your glutes.
• My fat content is purely dependent on my diet, not my workout. I was lax on the diet this month and I've had zero drop in fat. I've seen a number of blogs writing about P90X who don't follow the diet and become fit, strong, limber, toned and yet don't lose a pound of fat. I've posted about this before. There is no study done that shows exercise helps you lose weight.
• Mentally I'm getting worn down. Part of that is a sickness I've had towards the end of Phase 2 and part of it is just doing something like this for so long. I'm curious where my mental state will be at the end.

My goal for the last month is to hit the diet hard and get up to at least a clean 10 pullups per set for the 8 set routines.